The price of a set lunch comes from three things: what an average set costs in ingredients (starter, main and drink, weighted by what guests actually order), how much of your fixed costs each set has to carry given how many you sell a day, and what you want left over. Sell 80 sets a day and each one carries a much bigger share of fixed costs than if you sell 140. That is why the same price can make money in a full room and lose it in a half-empty one.
Step 1: cost each option
Build a card for every starter and main you put on the board, with the weights you serve and the price from your latest invoice. Do not forget the rice, the oil, the garnish and the bread. The method is in how to cost a plate.
Watch the portions. Set lunches go out fast, by the ladle; if the pasta portion grows by 30 g one day, it grows on a hundred plates. Use the same measure every time, as explained in portion control.
Step 2: cost the average set
Nobody orders "the average set". Some take soup and some take salad; some take the schnitzel and some the curry. The real cost is an average weighted by what people actually order. Count for two weeks how many chose each option and turn that into a percentage.
Weighted cost = cost of option A × % who order it + cost of option B × % who order it + …
Step 3: fixed costs per set
Take the share of monthly fixed costs that lunch service has to carry, and divide it by the days you serve lunch. Then divide that daily figure by the sets you sell a day.
Fixed cost per set = (lunch's share of monthly fixed costs ÷ lunch days) ÷ sets per day
Your own pay goes here. If you cook, put what you need to earn as a fixed cost, just like everyone else's wages.
Worked example: a $14 weekday lunch special
A café-restaurant serving a set lunch Monday to Friday, 22 days a month. All prices before tax.
Cost per option and what guests order
| Part | Option | Cost | Ordered by | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starter | Soup of the day | $0.90 | 70% | $0.63 |
| Starter | Side salad | $1.20 | 30% | $0.36 |
| Main | Chicken schnitzel | $3.40 | 45% | $1.53 |
| Main | Beef ragu pasta | $3.00 | 35% | $1.05 |
| Main | Vegetable curry | $2.20 | 20% | $0.44 |
- Average starter: 0.63 + 0.36 = $0.99
- Average main: 1.53 + 1.05 + 0.44 = $3.02
- Iced tea or lemonade: $0.30
- Bread and butter: $0.25
- Ingredients per set: 0.99 + 3.02 + 0.30 + 0.25 = $4.56
Lunch's share of fixed costs for the month: rent $4,000, lunch staff $6,600, your pay $3,500, utilities $1,300. Total: $15,400. Over 22 days: 15,400 ÷ 22 = $700 a day.
What each set leaves toward fixed costs: 14.00 − 4.56 = $9.44.
Sets needed to break even: 700 ÷ 9.44 = 74.15, so 75 sets a day.
What happens at different volumes
| Sets a day | Fixed per set | Full cost per set | Left per set | Left per day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | $10.00 | $14.56 | −$0.56 | −$39.20 |
| 80 | $8.75 | $13.31 | $0.69 | $55.20 |
| 100 | $7.00 | $11.56 | $2.44 | $244.00 |
| 140 | $5.00 | $9.56 | $4.44 | $621.60 |
The same $14 lunch loses $39.20 a day at 70 sets and leaves $621.60 at 140. The price did not change; the volume did.
The price you need
If you know how many sets you sell and how much you want left each day, solve for the price:
Price = ingredients per set + (daily fixed costs + what you want left) ÷ sets per day
At 100 sets a day with $300 left over: 4.56 + (700 + 300) ÷ 100 = 4.56 + 10.00 = $14.56. If your area will not pay $14.56, the question becomes how to sell more sets or bring the cost per set down. The break-even calculator gives you the sets per month and per day you need at each price, and the guide to break-even explains the method in more detail.
What is left at the end of service
At 2:30 there is soup and ragu left in the pots. That is cost too. If you prepared 90 sets and sold 80, the 10 left over (starter and main: 0.99 + 3.02 = $4.01 each) add up to 10 × 4.01 = $40.10 a day. At 80 sets sold, instead of $55.20 a day you keep 55.20 − 40.10 = $15.10.
Two things help:
- Log the leftovers by day of the week. Mondays do not sell like Fridays. Cook for what that day sells, not for your best day.
- Count staff meals separately. If the team eats from the lunch pots, fine, but those portions were not sold. Give them their own line so you know how much they are.
When the mix shifts
The weighted cost moves even if you change nothing. If one week the schnitzel goes to 60%, the ragu to 30% and the curry to 10%, the average main becomes 0.60 × 3.40 + 0.30 × 3.00 + 0.10 × 2.20 = 2.04 + 0.90 + 0.22 = $3.16. That is $0.14 more per set, $14 a day at 100 sets. If your most expensive main is also the most popular, put something next to it that people want and that costs you less.
The set lunch as a hook
Plenty of places sell the set lunch at close to no profit to fill tables and earn on what sells around it: drinks, desserts, coffee, dinner bookings. It works only if you do the sum.
In the example, if 3 in 10 guests add a $4.00 cookie or dessert that costs you $1.10, each set leaves on average 0.30 × (4.00 − 1.10) = $0.87 more. What each set leaves rises to 9.44 + 0.87 = $10.31, and break-even drops to 700 ÷ 10.31 = 67.9, so 68 sets a day. That helps, but it does not rescue a 60-set day: 60 × 10.31 = $618.60, still $81.40 short of $700.
Drinks and extras often leave more per dollar than the set itself, so offer them every time; see drinks, sides and extras. To see how the set lunch fits with the rest of a restaurant's numbers, read how to make a restaurant profitable.
Do it with the calculator
Put each starter and main into the food cost calculator with its grams and prices to get the cost per portion. With those costs, work out the weighted average from this guide and add the drink and bread. The menu price calculator helps you test prices from that cost.
Frequently asked questions
How do I cost a set lunch if the options change every day?
Cost each starter and main once on its own card. Then, each day, weight them by how many guests chose each one. After a few weeks you will know which combinations cost the most and can plan the board with that in mind.
What do I do with the soup and mains left at the end of service?
Count them as that day's cost, even if staff eat them. If you cook 90 and sell 80, the 10 left over are paid for by the 80 you sold. Adjust quantities by day of the week.
Should I cut the set lunch price to bring in more people?
Only if the extra lunches pay for the cut. Work out how many sets you would need at the new price to leave the same as today. If that number is impossible for your room, the cut loses money.
Is a set lunch worth it if it barely makes money?
It can be, if what sells around it pays: drinks, desserts, coffee, dinner bookings from lunch regulars. Put a number on those extras before deciding, not after.